Owen Thomas, Founder and Senior Partner at Red Oak Consulting, believes high-performance computing (HPC) could be the silent hero that transforms how we protect communities from the growing risks of climate change, as he explains.
Reflecting on our school days, many of us wince at the thought of quadratic equations. Yet behind these abstract concepts lies a powerful, life-saving tool: high-performance computing.
HPC’s application of advanced mathematics and immense processing power makes it an irreplaceable resource for industries such as meteorology. As the saying goes, “absence reveals the importance of presence,” and in the case of HPC, its absence would result in far greater human costs from natural disasters. Why? Because its ability to transform critical data into actionable insights is unparalleled.
HPC in the face of climate change
The WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) has recently declared 2024 the warmest year on record, with global temperatures surpassing pre-industrial levels by 1.55°C. Furthermore, the oceans are warmer than ever before, and sea levels continue their relentless rise. Global warming is driving increasingly erratic weather patterns, placing communities and infrastructure at unprecedented risk. The events of 2024 starkly illustrated the devastating power of nature: in Valencia alone, more than 220 people lost their lives and billions of euros of vital infrastructure were destroyed.
The rise in catastrophic disasters underscores the importance in timely and accurate forecasting and therefore the power of HPC technology. I have witnessed the importance of HPC in my work both at Red Oak Consulting and at the Met Office, and I am certain this technology will continue to help us navigate the modern world and the risks of climate change in ways once unimaginable.
How HPC assists meteorologists
The real strength of HPC lies in its ability to process vast datasets from diverse sources that simulate weather scenarios and predict future patterns – from satellites and radar, to aircraft, and ocean buoys, to name a few. The models they create can be run at high resolution, leveraging immense computational power to track region-specific developments with unmatched precision.
For instance, in the case of a hurricane, HPCs can forecast not only the storm’s expected path but also critical metrics such as wind speed and rainfall distribution. This real-time data enables communities to prepare and adapt before and during fast-moving, unpredictable storms. Authorities can also use these models to make informed decisions about evacuations and resource allocation.
Global aviation application
It is no surprise that HPC’s unmatched data-processing capabilities also play a critical role in global aviation. World Area Forecast centres, such as the one run by the Met Office in the UK and the NOAA in the US, are a vital resource when navigating possible hazards in safe-flight planning.
If, for example, we take a transatlantic flight between the UK and the US, forecasters can monitor extensive stretches of the atmosphere for hazards, such as abnormal weather patterns such as storms and icing hazards. Therefore, the rapid data processing power of HPCs is in some ways a ‘guardian of the skies’ and we must not underestimate its everyday importance.
Partnership in precision
The real magic comes when the vast amount of data available to us is used in collaboration with key partners. For instance, we worked alongside the Met Office to pioneer a cloud-based HPC model to enhance the Met Office’s ability to create climate and weather models on a global scale. An example of the HPC model’s practical application could be its ability to run scenarios based on different emissions levels.
This has a political impact too and can help governments prepare effectively for future changes in weather patterns. For example, HPCs can help governments anticipate the risk of flooding in coastal communities, as well as food insecurity where the threat of drought is high – providing communities with the best infrastructure to weather the storms.
In many ways, HPC is one of our most important tools for defending against the threat of disasters that climate change will inevitably heighten. Looking back at the quadratic equations of our school days, it is clear how advanced mathematical processes, as applied by HPCs, can lead to life-saving solutions for humanity.
